First Quintile Summary

OK, so I am 20% of the way through. That’s 6 days of meeting lots of girls. I wanted to take a minute, reflect, and crunch some numbers.

First, some reflection on progress:

  • At the start, I was very scared to approach and stop girls on the street. Now, I can do that fairly fearlessly (still get psyched out occasionally).
  • Once I started stopping and talking to girls, the interactions were a little stale and many times girls just left quickly. Now, we tend to have fun conversations, there’s lots of smiling, etc.
  • I’m a bit socially fearless now. I find myself joking around with random people, cash tellers, etc. more.
I’ve also made some interesting discoveries in this past week:


  • Talking to random strangers takes an “activation energy”. One reached it’s not only have a much easier time stopping and chatting to people, but I think I’m funnier / more charismatic.
  • Onlookers don’t give a shit. Granted, I tend to approach when others couldn’t really hear. But only once has someone ever mentioned something and it was no problem. Funny considering a lot of my fear has been around what other’s think.
  • I don’t think I have any way of telling how a girl will respond before I go into it. Sometimes the ones that look friendlier (based on my gut) aren’t into it, while the ones that look meaner are totally pleasant and cool. The only interesting thing I’ve noticed is that the prettiest seem to generally be down to talk and like being approached.  Maybe they just have more practice with getting hit on?

Now, remember, my central thesis is that the most important ingredient to dating success is purely having lots of numbers. Let’s talk about that.

First, here’s the high-level overview:

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Quintile 1
# of direct day approaches 1 4 6 20 15 16 62
# of total approaches  11 7 6 21 20 17 82
# of  info exchanged  3 1  0 4  3  4  18

First, remember, how scared I was at first to approach in the day/directly? Look at that trend:

# of direct street approaches per day

You can actually see me growing balls.

Note that it took about 3 days before I really became comfortable with it (suggesting, maybe I should throw out the first 3 days’ data since I wasn’t operating at cruising velocity maybe?).

Now, let’s dig into some of the other data and see if we can discover anything useful. I’m betting we can’t since I haven’t really collected enough.

Warning: this is about to get really perhaps over-the-top geeky. Really, this shit is interesting to me. Maybe this is why I don’t have a GF? lolz

Outcome probability of approaches

Too many damn boyfriends! Does Manhattan even have this many dudes?

This chart shows my probability of getting a response on a given day. For example, on Day 2, the odds of a girl having a boyfriend on any given approach was slightly under 30%; while the odds of any approach turning into a phone number exchange on day 4 was slightly above 15%.

I converted stuff to probabilities to normalize by number of approaches (since I’ve had some high variance in the number of approaches I’ve done on each day).  Also note that the probabilities don’t quite sum all the way to 100% on each day because I’ve excluded some less interesting data (e.g. leaving myself, getting fbook info, etc).

The first thing to note is that after day 4, my “flee” rate has dropped drastically. This supports my feeling that I’m better at getting people to stop and talk.

It looks like the percentage of boyfriends is staying about the same. It’s not really a surprising amount…  As a back-of-the-envelop test, the census data from 2010 says ~70% of NYC females aged 20-34 are never married/divorced. This does not take into account “boyfriends”. I’ll estimate half have a boy (can’t find any stats to support this, readers – please send me something if you find it!). That means about 35% of the girls I approach are without a boyfriend; and 65% are married or with a boyfriend.

Why are, on average only 40% of the girls I’m talking to saying they have a boyfriend? Well, earlier on more girls “fled” possibly before they mentioned the whole not single thing.  Notice that day 5 and 6, when I’ve had the fewest “flees” reported the highest BF amount – 45% and 53%. This is still far away from that 65% stat; well, remember the census data grouped girls 20-34. I’d bet the older gals are less likely to be single, and I’m only approaching the 21-27ish ones… So I think this data seems to support my findings of ladies with boyfriends.

Strange, I would have expected more girls to lie about having a boyfriend who weren’t into me or down for a “random” meeting… Maybe since I’m being honest, they feel the need also?

Also, looks like I am sitting at about a 15% rate of girls who say they’d want to meet up (note this excludes fbook exchanges since those tend to only come up when the girl isn’t a great candidate – either not totally interested, has a bf, lives out of state, etc. If something comes of one of them, I’ll include them in the stats). If the pool of available girls is really only 60% – that means a quarter of single girls I speak to are down to grab a drink… Not bad! This also seems to be the most constant stat. I wonder if I can improve the rate (meaning this is a skill based thing).

Even if I can’t increase this number, the fact that it’s about constant indicates that this is a scalable endeavor – just make 6 approaches and exchange contact info.

Strangely enough there has been research in this area.  In Clark and Hatfield’s 1989 paper, Gender Differences in Receptivity to Sexual Offers, Journal of Psychology and Human Sexuality, 2, 39-55, guys of average attractiveness walked up to random girls and asked if they’d go out on a date. ~50% said yes. (note: they also asked girls if they were DTF. 0% said yes. Girls also asked guys if they were DTF.  Hilariously, 70% of guys said yes. Even MORE hilariously, only 50% of guys said yes to a date).

But, I digress. Why am I only getting 1/6 if Mr. 1980 could get 1/2? And I’m doing more than just asking for a date, I’m also having a bit of a conversation. I’d expect it to be higher!

Here are my thoughts. First, I’m only approaching girls I find very attractive (average attractiveness of girls that guys approached was 7.8 in the study). Second, I don’t  approach girls who look younger than 21 (and if they are, I leave) – younger girls are almost definitely easier to get out on dates or at least agree to one (since they have been on fewer, can’t go out to bars, love older guys, etc). Third, it’s possible that many girls just agreed to get the guy to go away or because they have a hard time saying no. Also, maybe it’s something about NYC being a harsher environment? In any case, I doubt 50% would actually go on a date after an approach like that.

That’s enough number crunching for me.

So what to focus on moving ahead?  I’m meeting lots of girls but haven’t been out on many dates. I haven’t done a great job of following up. Though when I have, I haven’t gotten a single return call (got one return txt though)! I wonder, why are girls interested in meeting up in the moment but then later not? Is there a way to overcome this? (I am considering switching to purely txting since it seems to get responses). I did have this issue when I was “normally dating” too. Damnit, ladies! Can’t you just say no from the start?

I may also want to start experimenting with what I say and pieces of an interaction. For instance, I’ve read a bunch of times that eye contact is super important. Maybe just focus on that. Or focus on telling girls why I’m interested in them beyond looks (hunch of mine is that girls like being appreciated for more than just beauty). My thesis implies this stuff doesn’t matter, but it’s worth giving a shot.

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7 Responses to First Quintile Summary

  1. Tim says:

    Very interesting data analysis.

    May I suggest recording a few more indicators in order to cross tabulate with your existing data.

    1. Exchange of contact information resulting in an actual date.
    2. Casual wear vs. Formal wear vs. Athletic wear.
    3. Approximate length of conversation vs. exchange of contact information / not interested.
    4. Time of day vs. exchange of contact information / not interested.

    In any case, this is a pleasant read and I hope that you are able to find your girl within the next 30 days.


    • Great suggestions.
      1. Will definitely perform further analysis once I have gone out on more dates. As I alluded, I haven’t done such a great job of setting up dates (partially focus partially flakes)

      2. I actually have this data! Just didn’t analyze it

      3. Good idea. I’ll start recording length of convo (this was the original idea behind ‘flee instantly’)

      The analysis might not be super useful since I will be going through the process and will probably realize things as they happen (e.g. girls sticking around longer). In the interesting of maintaing my nerd-hood, I’ll keep on poking through the data.

  2. Hank says:

    I am reading your blog day to day, Thank you for being such an inspiration 🙂
    I can really relate myself to this experiment, and I’ll try to approach more and more girls soon too!

  3. Jordan says:

    Great blog! I love getting the new posts in my inbox every day. Also, it’s nice to see that I’m not the only one suffering from girls who act interested but then never call/message back haha.

  4. A.J. says:

    This blog is fantastic. This stuff is actually very encouraging for us blokes who have a hard time approaching women.

    I do have a little suggestion. Could you add photographs of yourself to the posts – so we could see what you look like and how you were dressed on a given day. It’d help us gauge how handsome you are and how your choice of clothes effects how well women accept you. Please consider this – people are always saying that the clothes make the man and that women look at a man’s shoes, etc.

    Good luck on finding your girl!

  5. Pingback: Changing things up! | The Girlfriend Hypothesis

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