Second Quintile Summary

OK, so a reflection from the last 6 days.

It definitely began to feel like more of a grind. And the constant stream of “learning experience” did get to me.

It’s worth noting that it took 2.5 weeks to finish (versus the first six taking a week). This is primarily due to other things taking up time in my life, but I would be lying if I didn’t admit avoidance was a contributing factor. I did 49 total approaches vs the 82 from Q1. So, not only did it take longer to finish, but I wasn’t able to put in as much time. Honestly, this doesn’t bother me – I prefer to start things off strong, but it’s useful to keep in mind that this quartile only has 60% the number of approaches as the previous one.

Let’s dive in. Note that (nearly) all approcaches are direct day, so I’m removing the “total” category that was in the Quartile 1 summary..

Day 7 Day 8 Day 9 Day 10 Day 11 Day 12 Quintile 1
# of direct day approaches 10 12 5 7 7 8 49
# of  info exchanged  3 1  1 2  2  0  9

So, my “success” rate is 18%, which is on par with Quartile 1s (21%).

And here’s the outcome probabilities (includes Quintile 1 for reference).

Note day 9 only had 5 approaches (and a date!) so that might explain why it disrupts my otherwise pretty plot.

So it looks like fewer girls are saying they have a boyfriend. I guess this is good – maybe they’re just being honest? As we figured out last time, it looks like 40ish percent should probably have boyfriends, so maybe this is just pure randomness.  As noted above, the phone # exchange is staying about constant around that 1/6 line, though my efforts to grab coffee paid off on day 10 and 11.

The difference in “flee instantly” is probably the most prominent. While it is true that I’ve gotten a lot better at being calmer, being persistent, and sometimes fun, there certainly are girls who just leave quickly.  It’s very hand-wavey, I know…

The results are still high volatility in most categories (except perhaps flee rate). I need to accept that some days are just simply bad.

Next up, I’ve got a new chart. I know I’ve mentioned that I’ve believed there is an “activation energy”. So, below is a plot of approaches vs. success. That is the “1”‘s mean an exchange of contact info and the 0 means no for any other reason.

Approaches vs. success. That is the "1"'s mean an exchange of contact info and the 0 means no for any other reason.

It definitely looks like successful approaches are clustered. Which, to me, means there is “good days” or “hot streaks” … or “activation energy”. I’d like to come up with better stats to substantiate this, but I am too short on time/drunk right now (happy friday everyone).

It’s funny because the some of things that are most interesting to me are hard to quantify… For instance, I really think I need to tone up my “flirtatiousness” and “playfulness” even though no stats support this (this is the conclusion my subconscious has come up with… probably based on previous success).

So, I plan on spending the next quartile purposefully trying to be more flirty…. I think a reason girls haven’t been that in to me is that I haven’t been light hearted enough.

Am definitely proud of my results and progress so far.

Onward to Quintile 3!


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7 Responses to Second Quintile Summary

  1. Omar says:

    I’ll just leave that here 🙂
    Trust me, it’ll do you wonders! Don’t dismiss it.

  2. Evan Fazio says:

    Hey bud, once again great update. I miss the more narrative aspect of this blog, but the statistics are interesting and I’m sure that is where your main interest lies anyway. If you ever feel like returning to some accounts of single interactions, I’d be a happy vicarious liver once again.

    I’ll say that your blog still is inspiring to watch and read. Really impressed by your drive and perseverance. You’ve been part of my inspiration to “do something that scares you” every day. Sometimes I ask a girl out, sometimes it is something else. In any case, you’ve been a factor. Thanks!

    • Awesome that you’re doing something that scares you everyday. Strange how that seems to build character!

      Thanks man- will definitely post more narrative stuff if I find it relevant… Issue is recently I find most of the approaches kind of blur and seem so similar these days… Hopefully that won’t continue.

      • Evan Fazio says:

        Oh yeah that definitely makes sense. I can see how, when you started, it would have all seemed so new and exhilarating, but now I’m sure much of the novelty is gone.

        In any event, keep up the great work!

  3. Broadband says:

    Sad to see you gave up. I was hoping you’d make it through the 30 days and at worst if you didn’t find success you’d have built a habit that would get you there.

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